Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification
to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National
Academy of qciences-National Research Council;
"Weather and Climate Modification,"
Volume I - Summary and Recommendations,
Publication No. 1350, 1966, pg vii
in:
A Recommended National Program
In Weather Modification
A Report to the
Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Sciences
Homer E. Newell
by
Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application
National Aeronautics Si Space Administration
Washington, D.C.
Interdepartmental Committee
for
Atmospheric Sciences
Page 2
"A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL PROGRAM IN WEATHER MODIFICATION
INTRODUCTION
The earth's weather has a profound influence on
agriculture, forestry, water resources, industry, commerce,
transportation, construction, field operations,
commercial fishing, and many other human activities.
Adverse effects of weather on man's activities and the
earth's resources are extremely costly, amounting to
billions of dollars per year, sometimes causing
irreparable damage as when human lives are lost in
severe storms. There is, therefore, great motivation
to develop effective countermeasures against the
destructive effects of weather, and, conversely, to
enhance the beneficial aspects. The financial and
other benefits to human welfare of being able to
modify weather to augment water supplies, reduce
lightning, suppress hail, mitigate tornados, and
inhibit the full development of hurricanes would be
very great.
Over the past twenty years experiments have been
conducted on weather modification, particularly on the
effects of seedinq- clouds with such materials as
silver iodide crystals. The results are limited.
Under suitable circumstances it has been possible to
augment precipitation by ten to twenty percent, and to
reduce the frequency of fire-producing lightning
strokes. Effects on hail production have been noted,
sometimes suppression and sometimes augmentation.
These results probably would be of only passing interest
were it not for the potential importance to mankind
of further progress in this field. Perhaps the most
significant result of the experiments to date has been
to bring about a change in attitude from one of
skeptici9m to one of cautious optimism. The limited
success to date is encouraging, and underscores the
importance of pressing forward with the necessary research
to understand the dynamics of weather systems that will
have to be dealt with in any efforts at weather modification.
The gradually accumulating evidence of positive
results from efforts at weather modification led the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences of the National
Academy of Sciences, in November 1963,to appoint a
Panel on Weather and Climate Modification "to undertake
a deliberate and thoughtful review of the present status
and activities in this field and of its potential and
limitations for the future." (*) The Panel made its report
at the beginning of this calendar year (Ref. 1). The
composition of the NAS Panel is given in App. I, together
with a list of the Panel's recommendations. Elaboration
and discussion of these recommendations may be found
in Ref. 1.
On June 16, 1964, the Director of the National
Science Foundation announced the appointment of a
Special Commission on Weather Modification.
in its review of the field, the Commission activated
seven subgroups to study the physical, biological,
statistical, social, international, legal and legislative,
and administration and funding aspects of
weather and climate modification. The membership of
the Commission and a list of the principal recommendations
of the Commission are attached (App. 11).
Fdrther elaboration and discussions of those recommendations
may be found in the Commission's report and
the report of the subgroups (Refs. 2 and 3).
With the growing conviction of positive and potential
results, a number of government agencies have been
developing plans for research and ultimately operational
programs in weather and climate modification. Some of
these plans stem from the desire to use weather modification
to meet specific mission responsibilities such
as development of water resources, protection of crops,
protection against forest fires, ecc: Other plans stem
- m dire= responsibility for furthering our understanding
of weather and its uses. A summary report,
"Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies in
Weather-Climate Modification," dated June 20, 1966, was
prepared for the Interdepartmental Committee for
Atnospheric Sciences (ICAS) by a Select Panel on Weather
Modification (App. 111). -Whereas the ICAS Select Panel
report reflected a desirable vigor in pressing forward
in this important field, nevertheless, it raised a
number of questions as to the soundness and adequacy of
proposed plans, the validity of cost estimates, the
availsbility of trained people to meet the schedules
proposed, overlapping of research activities, duplication
of proposed facilities, responsibility for coordination
and reporting, and responsibility for regulation and
control.
To discharge its responsibilities, ICAS must provide
answers to these questions and make appropriate recommendations.
To this end, the Chairman of ICAS, Dr. Herbert
Hollomon, asked me to review the proposed plans and to
submit recommendations that might be adopted by ICAS for
a report to Dr. Donald F. Hornig, Director of the Office
of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President.
____________________________________________________________
(*) Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification
to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National
Academy of qciences-National Research Council; "Weather
and Climate Modification," Volume I-Summary and Recommendations,
Publication No. 1350, 1966, pg vii"
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