MONASH UNIVERSITY, Australia public release by the AAAS, July 31rst 2018:
"If people cannot adapt to future climate temperatures, deaths caused by severe heatwaves will increase dramatically in tropical and subtropical regions, followed closely by Australia, Europe and the United States, a global new Monash-led study shows.
Published today in PLOS Medicine, it is the first global study to predict future heatwave-related deaths and aims to help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Researchers developed a model to estimate the number of deaths related to heatwaves in 412 communities across 20 countries for the period of 2031 to 2080.
The study projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under different scenarios characterised by levels of greenhouse gas emissions, preparedness and adaption strategies and population density across these regions.
Study lead and Monash Associate Professor Yuming Guo said the recent media reports detailing deadly heatwaves around the world highlight the importance of the heatwave study.
'Future heatwaves in particular will be more frequent, more intense and will last much longer,' Associate Professor Guo said.
'If we cannot find a way to mitigate the climate change (reduce the heatwave days) and help people adapt to heatwaves, there will be a big increase of heatwave-related deaths in the future, particularly in the poor countries located around the equator.'
A key finding of the study shows that under the extreme scenario, there will be a 471 per cent increase in deaths caused by heatwaves in three Australian cities (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne) in comparison with the period 1971-2010.
'If the Australia government cannot put effort into reducing the impacts of heatwaves, more people will die because of heatwaves in the future,' Associate Professor Guo said.
The study comes as many countries around the world have been affected by severe heatwaves, leaving thousands dead and tens of thousands more suffering from heatstroke-related illnesses. The collective death toll across India, Greece, Japan and Canada continues to rise as the regions swelter through record temperatures, humidity, and wildfires. Associate Professor Antonio Gasparrini, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and study co-author, said since the turn of the century, it's thought heatwaves have been responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, including regions of Europe and Russia.
'Worryingly, research shows that is it highly likely that there will be an increase in their frequency and severity under a changing climate, however, evidence about the impacts on mortality at a global scale is limited,' Associate Professor Gasparrini said.
'This research, the largest epidemiological study on the projected impacts of heatwaves under global warming, suggests it could dramatically increase heatwave-related mortality, especially in highly-populated tropical and sub-tropical countries. The good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios that comply with the Paris Agreement, then the projected impact will be much reduced.'
Associate Professor Gasparrini said he hoped the study's projections would support decision makes in planning crucial adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
In order to prevent mass population death due to increasingly severe heatwaves, the study recommends the following six adaption interventions, particularly significant for developing countries and tropical and subtropical regions:
Individual: information provision, adverting
Interpersonal: Information sharing; communication; persuasive arguments; counselling; peer education
Community: Strengthening community infrastructure; encouraging community engagement; developing vulnerable people group; livelihoods; neighbourhood watch
Institutional: Institutional policies; quality standards; formal procedures and regulations; partnership working
Environmental: Urban planning and management; built environment; planting trees; public available drink water; house quality
Public policy: Improvement of health services; poverty reduction; redistribution of resources; education; heatwave-warning system.
###
MEDIA ENQUIRIES
Media
Monash University
T: +61-3-9903-4840
E: media@monash.edu "
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-07/mu-hdw072618.phpGuo, Yuming; Gasparrini, Antonio; Li, Shanshan; Sera, Francesco;
Vicedo-Cabrera, Maria; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline;
Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo; Lavigne, Eric; Tawatsupa, Benjawan;
Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Overcenco, Ala; Matus Correa, Patricia; Valdes Ortega, Nicolas; Kan, Haidon; Osorio, Samuel; Jaakola, Jouni J. K.; Ryti, Niilo R. I.; Goodman, Patrick G.; Zeka, Ariana; Michelozzi, Paola; Scortichini, Matteo; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Seposo, Xerxes; Kim, Ho; Tobias, Aurelio; Íñiguez, Carmen; Forsberg, Bertil; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Guo, Yue Leon; Chen, Bing-Yu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Josel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Van, Dung Do; Bell, Michelle L. Armstrong, Ben; Ebi, Kristie L.; Tong, Shilu
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
(2018) PLoS Medicine Issue Image | Vol. 15(7) July 2018. PLoS Med 15(7): ev15.i07.
https://doi.org/10.1371/image.pmed.v15.i07https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629"Abstract
Background
Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited.
Methods and findings
We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971–2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031–2080 compared with 1971–2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections.
Conclusions
This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change."
