Youtube: "ABC News (Australia) Published 06.08.2018: In 1973, Australia's largest computer predicted trends such as pollution levels, population growth, availability of natural resources and quality of life on earth.
ABC's This Day Tonight aired this story on 9 November, 1973
In Minute 1 Second 3 the speaker within this documentary says that it is a behaviour since 1900. Well, I think nowadays we have a different behaviour than in 1900. If you look to the importance of the media today - people look all the time to their smartphone - compared to 1900 you may imagine that the resources used to produce the media are quite different resource than the resources necessary for life in 1900. Today sand is important in 1900 the steel and the coal industry.
And this change will go on: the Boeing 787 is made by carbon fiber thus the importance of aluminum - at least in airplane production - will lessen.
What is more interesting to me is the fact of the publication date of the video of 1973: August 6th 2018. Don't forget the Australian Prime Minister was exchanged. The Australian government is only run by one vote more in the Parliament. The old government has eliminated the carbon tax. The new government is run by a conservative hardliner. There is insecurity if he has the power to stay in office. And there is hope and speculation on new elections in Australia. A Labor government would go on the old track again. It is this connection - I guess - which has led to the publication of this old video by ABC.
I would be more curious if there would be an actual video with todays facts.
As we know: the Club of Rome is part of a doomsday perspective. And we know, too - there is also another perspective on the population topic - that of power. Many people are meaning lots of power. Fewer people are meaning lesser power. What I have heard of is the circumstance that China has left the One-Child-Policy of the past. What does this means? China is not parting the perspective of doomsday.
China does not have to be militarily aggressive they just impress by their mass of people.
The reason China changed its policy: India.
The pollution rate in this documentary was not founded by any description. Therefore the audience does not know what kind of polution was meant and used within the WORLD ONE computer model. "Science" is that time was even unchallenged by any critics as "Science" seemed to be objective - seemingly without any interest of their own. The name of the computer model "WORLD ONE" insinuates rather a political program than a algorithm.
In fact, plastic is a problem - both in a visible way as well in a micro or even nano shape. You eat it in fish. You have in plastic bottles. And probably many fat people got their problems from the hormone-like chemicals within the plastics.
What I am missing in that film is a graph for knowledge. The problem with knowledge is that this resource is inconsistent. Knowledge is lost. And knowledge is gained. For different situations and problems you need different knowledges.
The video report of 1973 has put in account the perspective and the resources of 1973.
With the internet more people have more access to more information which can be newly combined to knowledge.
"There have been many questions about the countries forecast specially the one focusing on the United States of America (USA). They won't be answered one by one but below you can find some explanation, thoughts and reflections. We are going to keep this as short as possible.
The majority of the economic and demographic data used in the making of the forecasts is widely available by institutions such as the CIA, IMF, UN, USG, etc. You can see the most relevant data at every single country's page. There is a tiny part of data coming from a variety of shadow sources such as Internet gurus, unsigned reports and others. But all these sources are from the internet and are of public domain for at least a minority. For example, several years ago Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, published a report analyzing the physical economy of the States comparing it with those of China, Germany and Japan. The conclusion was that the US GDP was something between $5 to $10 trillion instead of $15 trillion as officially reported by the USG. ( https://www.businessinsider.com/china-dagong-us-gdp-2010-11?IR=T , Denglisch) We assume that the official data, especially economic, released by governments is fake, cooked or distorted in some degree. Historically it is well known that the former Soviet Union was making up fake statistics years before its collapse. Western as well as other countries are making up their numbers today to conceal their real state of affairs. We are sure that many people out there can find government statistics in their own countries that by their own personal experience are hard to believe or are so optimistic that may belong to a different country.
Despite the numeric data "quantity" there is a "quality" model which has not a direct translation into numeric data. The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60% but try to imagine what would happen if there is a pandemic of Ebola with hundreds of thousands or millions infected with the virus. So far the few cases of Ebola-infected people have "enjoyed" intensive healthcare with anti-viral and breathing assistance but above all with abundant human support by Physicians and nurses. In a pandemic scenario that kind of healthcare won't be available for the overwhelming number of infected leading to a dramatic increase of the death rate due to the lack of proper healthcare. The "quality" factor is that the death rate could increase to 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the stated 50-60% rate. The figure itself is not important what is relevant is the fact that the scenario can evolve beyond the initial conditions from a 50% death toll to more than 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast.
The key element to understand the process that the USA will enter in the upcoming decade is migration. In the past, specially in the 20th century, the key factor that allowed the USA to rise to its colossus status was immigration with the benefits of a demographic expansion supporting the credit expansion and the brain drain from the rest of the world benefiting the States. The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its population while ending ponzi schemes such as the stock exchange and the pension funds. The population will be hit so badly by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse accelerating itself due to ripple effects thus leading to the demise of the States. This unseen situation for the States will develop itself in a cascade pattern with unprecedented and devastating effects for the economy. Jobs offshoring will surely end with many American Corporations relocating overseas thus becoming foreign Corporations!!!! We see a significant part of the American population migrating to Latin America and Asia while migration to Europe - suffering a similar illness - won't be relevant. Nevertheless the death toll will be horrible. Take into account that the Soviet Union's population was poorer than the Americans nowadays or even then. The ex-Soviets suffered during the following struggle in the 1990s with a significant death toll and the loss of national pride. Might we say "Twice the pride, double the fall"? Nope. The American standard of living is one of the highest, far more than double of the Soviets while having added a services economy that will be gone along with the financial system. When pensioners see their retirement disappear in front of their eyes and there are no servicing jobs you can imagine what is going to happen next. At least younger people can migrate. Never in human history were so many elders among the population. In past centuries people were lucky to get to their 30s or 40s. The American downfall is set to be far worse than the Soviet Union's one. A confluence of crisis with a devastating result.
The Demographic crisis in the former Soviet Union countries has extended for over two decades, if we accept that it ended early in this decade (2010s). The demographic crisis will hit the World in the near future and is projected to last between three and eight decades more or less depending on technological breakthrough and environmental issues. The aftermath is more likely a frozen picture with the population numbers staying the same for a very, very long period of time. The countries forecast population numbers do reflect birth/deaths but also migratory movements. Many countries are going to increase their gross population due to immigration while their native population may shrink.
Over the past two thousand years we have witnessed the Western civilization built around the Mediterranean Sea shifting to Northern Europe and then by the mid 20th century shifting to an Atlantic axis to finally get centered into the States in the past 30 years. The next move will see the civilization being centered in Asia with Russia and China on top. Historically a change in the economic paradigm has resulted in a death toll that is rarely highlighted by mainstream historians. When the transition from rural areas to large cities happened in Europe many people unable to accept the new paradigm killed themselves. They killed themselves by a psychological factor. This is not mainstream but it is true. A new crisis joins old, well known patterns with new ones.
Sorry to disappoint many of you with our forecast. It is getting worse and worse every year since the beginning of the pre-crisis in 2007. It is already said that this website is non-profit, built on spare time and we provide our information and services AS IS without further explanations and/or guarantees. We are not linked to any government in any way, shape or form. We are not a death or satanic cult or arms dealers as some BS is floating around the internet on this topic. Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model whether flawed or correct. It is not God's word or a magic device that allows to foresee the future.
"The 2014 strain of Ebola has a death rate of 50-60% but try to imagine what would happen if there is a pandemic of Ebola with hundreds of thousands or millions infected with the virus. So far the few cases of Ebola-infected people have "enjoyed" intensive healthcare with anti-viral and breathing assistance but above all with abundant human support by Physicians and nurses. In a pandemic scenario that kind of healthcare won't be available for the overwhelming number of infected leading to a dramatic increase of the death rate due to the lack of proper healthcare. The "quality" factor is that the death rate could increase to 80-90% in a pandemic scenario from the stated 50-60% rate. The figure itself is not important what is relevant is the fact that the scenario can evolve beyond the initial conditions from a 50% death toll to more than 90%. By the way, no pandemic or nuclear war is included in the forecast." Source: Look to the post above
If you look to this scenario from this point of view. It is not that far off. Although Ebola is not really a threat there might be other aspects of the health issue which might be really true. Ebola could spread out because of the widespread custom in Africa of washing the dead. This is not a threat anymore as the populace was educated about it.
But there might be another truth behind this example. Antibiotics for every bacterial disease are running out. There are already bacterial diseases which can not be healed by antibiotics. Viral disease are anyways always a problem. To many health officials these kind of diseases are the main concern because of their unpredictability.
Also there is another threat which is not publicly discussed: the financial market. Deagel is right about the demography. There are financial promises which are unrealistically. In reality, there are burdens to get rid off. If you get rid of a part of the population you will have less burdens. Therefore there are hidden costs in the public budgets which are getting under the pressure of the financial markets. This is finally a health issue.
Of course, in total deagel.com has a pessimistic view of the world. Deagel saves itself by saying the development depends on the technological development - as Karl Marx did with his "tendencial fall of the profit rate", too. The whole website is cleverly made and serves the latent mistrust of the populace towards their governments. The pessimistic view of the author(s?) of the website is stating that every year since 2007 is getting worse. Therefore, the source of the pessimistic view is the financial crisis of 2007. In fact, this crisis was a "cold turkey" from the derivatives. But as it is normally usual with addicts to stay healthy they have to stay abstinent from drugs. As the system has not really been changing since 2007 this pessimistic view has its justification. If things will develop that bad as Deagel predicts is open.
"Take into account that the forecast is nothing more than a model whether flawed or correct. It is not God's word or a magic device that allows to foresee the future." (Deagel, Source above)
"The collapse of the Western financial system will wipe out the standard of living of its population while ending ponzi schemes such as the stock exchange and the pension funds. The population will be hit so badly by a full array of bubbles and ponzi schemes that the migration engine will start to work in reverse accelerating itself due to ripple effects thus leading to the demise of the States." (Source: Deagel) In the seventies I read a book by Servan-Schreiber. In this book there were future developments described. One of these developments was a predicted post-industrial society. I have never understood why this ought to be the holy gral of any society. Actually it was described that this kind of society would be tagged by "services". At that time I could not even imagine what that would be. It was predicted that for example foundations would give work to the populace. Sweden was - according to Servan-Schreiber - on the way of becoming a post-industrial society.
From todays point of view I think it was just an ideology for the owner of capital to justify the leave of their own country to make even more money in foreign countries. This ideology was strong as the industry of France shrank to 10 percent of the economy. The U.S. and UK no better. Germany stayed at 20 percent.
The idea behind the postindustrial society is that populaces of foreign countries support the own populace making products cheap and adding profits from outside to the profits of inside.
In fact, in the current discussion around free trade the U.S. receives billions and billions from Europe by selling its services to her. The current account between Europe and the U.S. is even slightly in favor to the U.S. But: the common U.S. populace has nothing from this exchange as patents or Google and Facebook don't give really many jobs to her home populace. The consequence: the postindustrial society is a scam for its own populace. A country needs an industrial base - substance - to rely on.
Dr. Markus Krall, a German macro economist, predicts that the Euro will collapse. As a neoliberal he does not believe in Keynes. He believes in productivity. And as the Federal Reserve had a zero percent interest rate policy for the money market the European Central Bank went on the same path. Krall states - as he had the task of introducing 80 percent of the risk managing systems in German banks after the crash of 2007 - that usually there has to be bancruptsy rate of about 2 percent of all companies per year. In the time period before it was that way. According to Schumpeter - an influential economist like Keynes - it is necessary to keep the economy healthy. It is called "creative destruction" by him. With the zero percent interest rate policy there is only a 0,5 percent brancruptsy rate per year. Therefore - his opinion - 1,5 percent of sick companies are adding each year with a zero percent interest rate policy by the central banks. Ending in a worldwide depression because of the economically sick companies when the interest rates will be going up because states don't have enough money anymore to go the path of Keynes. In Europe, Target 2 is not backed by anything adding another trillion €s in wealth loss. The U.S. is more solid as the 12 Federal Reserve Banks are exchanging Gold within the U.S. with each other. Target 2 is just an account without debt limit. And obviously, there is no political will to change it. The consequence: the market will create this political will.
Therefore, in that way the desaster forecast of deagel is not that bad - explaining also the cashless society driven by Wallstreet. After its introduction the populace will be even more blackmailed than now - with negative interest rates in the depression to get out of the depression. A shopowner is getting right now 10.000 US$ in the U.S. from the financial industry for becoming cashless. Why?
