"18 security threats

In place of military force are the technology of controlled chaos
Yuri Podgornykh
Vasily Dolgov


One of the most important tasks of the Armed Forces (AF) of the Russian Federation is a strategic deterrent, having significant advantage - both technologically and in equipping conventional precision weapons strategic focus. In these circumstances, it becomes crucial science-based formation of military-technical policy of the state and prospects of development of the definition of weapons, military and special equipment (AMSE). The fundamental problem lies in the correct definition of the threats and predicting their in the near and distant future.

What threats exist at the national and military security of the country? How are they evaluated? These methodological questions remain without a clear answer. Obviously affects the gap existing paradigm of modern scientific and technological breakthroughs.

'The degradation of mankind under the influence of an alien becomes a real threat'
However, 'the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation' (2010) and 'National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020' formulated some threats. Thus, in the Strategy 'threats to military security' called 'policy of a number of leading foreign countries aimed at achieving overwhelming superiority in the military sphere, primarily in strategic nuclear forces, through the development of high-precision, information and other high-tech means of warfare, strategic weapons in non-nuclear equipment, the formation of a unilateral global missile defense system, and the militarization of near-Earth space that could lead to a new round of the arms race, as well as the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, biological technologies, the production of weapons of mass destruction or their components and delivery systems. 'In addition, the Strategy notes that there is still something vague and malokonkretnoe, which has a negative impact on the military security of Russia and its allies.'

'The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation' formulate internal and external dangers and threats that do not coincide with those that are listed in the Strategy. Moreover, the external military threats in the Doctrine contain more than military threats. It turns out that not all hazards can turn into a military threat. Then it must be clear what can and what does not. Say whether such a military threat as 'territorial claims against Russia and its allies, the interference in their internal affairs' to develop into a military threat or not? And it was from that, what's the answer to this question depends on the content of the military-technical policy.

And the struggle for the redistribution of energy resources (and possibly for water), which has escalated in recent years? This is only a danger or a threat? Is limited to the economic sphere? Or maybe it all goes beyond 2020? But in 2020 the first - not such a distant prospect, especially with our long 'zapryaganiem.' It turns out that even in the most important state documents a discrepancy. Therefore, many military and civilian experts, political scientists try to formulate the existing threats to national security and the military in his vision. Justifying each usually comes from the mission of the department, because the totality does not add up. Moreover, often at substantially the same dangers and threats are formulated differently. All this contributes to a clear classification, depending on whether, in what area they appear - military, political, economic, and so on. D.

Four types of enemies

Determine obviously must be separated by a threat at all, and the military. If we consider the definition of those who are in our encyclopedic literature, we propose the following definition: a threat - a sign of imminent danger of damage to certain content is inaccurate or gravity, the possibility of parrying which may not be established. Appears the term 'danger', it is advisable to decide with him. Generalizing the well-known definitions under threat shall mean a condition in which there is a possibility of causing any damage to the system (society, the state).

Some researchers have proposed to characterize the risk of the presence of threats, challenges, and risks. In this case, under the challenge to understand 'a sign of real danger, which requires responses to prevent and / or reduce the potential for damage' at risk - 'a sign of the potential hazard to incur the expense of a certain severity, and content.'

The danger of war is seen through a military threat, which is a 'potential danger of war, which in turn can estimate the degree of readiness of any state (or coalition of states) for the implementation of an attack on other countries.'

In summary, under the threat of national security shall mean a sign of the possibility of causing damage to certain content is inaccurate or severity, eliminate or reduce the degree of which is determined by the set of all potential state.

Significant features can be evaluated using a special indicator characterizing, for example, the ratio of potential states in a particular field (military, economic, and so on. Etc..), Or the ability of the state receiving damage, delete or reduce the action of factors leading to it.

In the last years of the twentieth century and early twenty-first century, the international community has entered a new information-technological way. Fundamentally new ways and means of influencing people, expanded economic and communication links, intensified global informatization of society. Identify trends in reducing the likelihood of the use of force and large-scale military conflict and the emergence of new forms of violence. All this greatly expanded the range of possible threats to the national security of the Russian Federation.

This spectrum is shown in Figure 1 These figures do not fully determine the significance of the threats, and introduced to simplify the analysis. Considering the figure, it should be noted: the threat by the numbers 1-13 deep enough researched and discussed in the various discussions, 'round tables' in the media. The causes, areas of possible development and aggravation of the consequences, so take them apart in detail will not.

Military threats need certain specified with regard to the geopolitical and geostrategic position of the Russian Federation. States that create the variety of military threats, should be divided into the following types.

The first - and the country's military-political blocs, the most modern advances implement the scientific and technological revolution, the creation of strategic offensive and defensive arms, ahead of the rest for at least fifteen to twenty years, with interests around the world and giving prime importance in their defense of Power Factor.

Second - countries that have emerged on the high level of industrial development in the second half of the last century, having demographic superiority and motivation to regional and even global leadership, but so far unable to conduct high-tech war, especially on foreign soil.

Third - dynamic countries in the developing, with the militant nationalist and / or religious-minded society, offsetting weakness acquisition of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) and / or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Fourth - the country ceased to exist as a whole, have been victims of endless strife, sources of proliferation of WMD and thousands of militants trained in terrorist activities.

Classified state can be regarded as typical opponents, creating a military threat to the Russian Federation, different in scale and geographic areas, areas of armed conflict and ways of being, the place of occurrence and the dynamics of implementation.

The first type of enemy, using technological superiority, traditionally created threats in the maritime domain of warfare. Since the second half of the XX century to the present preferred aerospace, enables you to project military force in any region of the world in the shortest possible time. In the long term, the main threats will be created in the information and network environment.

Military threats can be local, regional and global in all strategic directions. In the presence of the Russian Federation is still enough nuclear missile potential, they can not be implemented directly and in rough shape, but only indirectly: the creation of hotbeds of tension on the borders of the Russian Federation, the imposition of high-tech arms race, show of military force, and so on. N. Pose a threat can be cross-border nature. Relying on military and economic potential, is a powerful information-psychological, political and legal, financial and economic impact on the various aspects of the life and activities of the state and society, conducted subversive and special operations to initiate and sponsor the armed conflict in the country.

Enemy of the second type, using the demographic advantage and a modern industrial power, is able to create local and regional threats in the terrestrial domain of warfare, and in the future - in the marine and aerospace. Geographically, they are regions of Siberia and the Far East. Threats can be implemented in the form of indirect pressure when relying on the development of military-economic potential of using formal and illegal migration flows, in the neighboring territories unfolds production activities.

Enemy of the third type, seeking to ensure the sustainability of the military and political situation, the military can create a threat to the Russian Federation independently and entered into an alliance with the enemies of the first or second type. These threats will arise along the perimeter of the southern and western borders, to have a local or regional scale and implemented in the terrestrial domain of warfare. As an indirect pressure on the Russian Federation may also be used by migratory flows, arms trafficking, drug trafficking, international crime, religious and nationalist extremism. The peculiarity of threats opponents of this type is the high probability of an incorrect assessment of the military-political situation, capabilities and intentions of the parties.

Enemy of the fourth type in the case of the final state of degradation may pose a threat of WMD falling into the hands of radical elements, pursuing their own goals or supported and directed from abroad. In addition, radical organizations and associations replenished large number of militants capable of carrying sabotage, provocations and attacks. At the beginning of the XXI century, these structures have moved from isolated actions to conduct targeted terrorist campaigns on land, at sea and in the air. The main feature of these threats - the transboundary nature, the ability to carry out preparatory activities and providing a host of other countries under the pretext. This ensures a high surprise and therefore the success of terrorist attacks and provocations, the complex nature of the impact on the various aspects of the life and activities of the society and the state.

Tension is growing

On the whole possible range of military threats to Russia's national security is shown in Figure 2 should be noted that currently the greatest threat both for individual countries, including countries - allies of Russia, and for the regions and the world as a whole are the so-called color revolutions. This phenomenon is in itself a complex generated on the one hand, the social and political antagonisms of authority and people that political leadership is unable to critically evaluate and forecast to generate timely measures neutralization. On the other hand, the external power centers can use these political contradictions, artificially established and strengthened in pursuit of hostile interests. The succession of revolutions not only leads to many bloody victims and enormous material damage, but also presents a clear military threat to the security of neighboring countries.

The decor is complicated by the fact that the United States and its allies, especially NATO, using technology of controlled chaos, actively intervene in all spheres of life, not stopping before the hidden force. Such actions extend the range of threats and becoming the main way to achieve military (and ultimately political) purposes other than military means. The authors are well-sources and the degree of threat to Russia and its allies, but does not examine the contents and trends, as the problem requires a separate study.

In a forgotten threat were 14-18: biosphere, exogenous, endogenous, hydrogeomorphological, ufological. They are not linked explicitly to the actions of our potential enemies, although such trends are reviewed and tangibly manifest in recent years, sometimes causing great harm to the state.

So, biosphere threats stem from everyday human activities, which has a global impact on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and the upper part of the lithosphere. Those, in turn, interconnected complex biogeochemical cycles of matter and energy migration. On the planet there is no area of land or sea, where there is no trace of human activity. Intensive and inefficient use of resources - water, gas, biological and other, compounded by the arms race and nuclear testing, dispelled the myth of infinite and inexhaustible nature. Examples of destructive human activities are plentiful. Added to this, modern weapons and military equipment (AME), which use highly toxic and highly aggressive fuels, acids and reagents, radioactive materials, chlorine-containing substances. When carrying out the daily activities of troops possible harm to the environment: emissions into the atmosphere and hydrosphere, soil and water pollution, land contamination, changing landscapes, and so on. N. Powerful radar and radio systems consume vast amounts of electricity, thousands of cubic meters of high-quality water, releasing into the atmosphere tremendous amounts of heat and electromagnetic energy hundreds megawatts.

In the world created huge amount of ammunition of various types and calibers, filled with organophosphorus poisoning and depleted uranium, which was stored in close proximity to populated areas and bodies of water, with access to large rivers and lakes. Guaranteed period of many ammunition almost expired. Big problem is the disposal of reactor compartments and nuclear submarines have served terms of use.

The content of the state for a long time multi-million army led to the country a large number of closed administrative-housing complexes. As a rule, they were created at considerable distances from the regional and district centers, have autonomous coal boilers and do not meet modern requirements of the water supply system, sewage treatment facilities, specialized waste collection and processing enterprises.

Reset all wastes usually held in nature. With the reform of the Armed Forces was a sharp decrease in their hundreds of administrative and housing complexes were just thrown together with technological areas, which housed AME, without assessing the possible environmental damage and any measures to restore the environment. Thus, to reduce the likelihood of threats to the biosphere is now needed:

pay more attention to the side-effects of everyday human activity on the composition and properties of the atmosphere, background radioactivity contamination of the upper layers of the hydrosphere and lithosphere, the reduction of water reserves and depletion of artesian wells, changing landscapes, the impact on the physiological and psychological health, and even on the gene pool of the population;
stimulate the activities of organizations for disposal (not by mining) waste of surplus military production;
make an assessment of the possible environmental damage in areas of the closed administrative-residential and industrial complexes and, if necessary, arrange for the reclamation area and prevent damage to the environment from the residual effects of their life.
 

Endogenous threats include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis. Exogenous - typhoons, hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, droughts, dust storms, heavy rains, hail, early and late frosts, fires and cryogenic conditions. To hydrogeomorphological - avalanches, abrasion, gully erosion, soil shifts.

Ufology

May be followed by an objection that a large part of Russian territory is not located in a seismically hazardous areas or where formed and operate powerful tsunamis, typhoons, tornadoes, hurricanes and tornadoes. But during the twentieth century, we have witnessed strong earthquakes, floods, droughts, fires, avalanches, floods and other hazards that have brought our country great damage. And the XXI century is no different until a special calmness in terms of the above-mentioned threats.

Chance of threats 14-18 remains high also because the regional executive authorities of the Russian Federation often suffer low responsibility and executive discipline and rarely take effective measures to reduce this probability. Often rely on the off chance and begin to stir, when roasted rooster pecked already.

To some extent, may cause confusion threat at number 18 - UFO (ufogenic). To date, accumulated a wealth of material (hundreds, if not thousands of cases) the appearance of unidentified objects and various types of aliens who in fact turned mankind into a reserve. We denote not only a UFO in the air, but also objects in the water, underwater, underground, hypermedia (ie, those that are moving in different areas and have the property of polymorphism).

Many researchers around the world have noted that while it is unknown where they come from, what their goals are, how to construct and most importantly - they are enemies or friends. At the same time, experience with unidentified objects, and even members of their crews shows that the consequences can be dire. For people - blindness, burns, paralysis, loss of consciousness, amnesia, radiation injury, physiological disorders, abduction and subsequent experiments of various kinds. For equipment - failure or destruction of the space, air, land, water (underwater) objects (vehicles), their mechanisms and systems, disrupt compasses, electrical and mechanical watches, internal combustion engines, electronic equipment, including weapons control and military equipment, as well as electrical systems, radio, telephone and television communications.

The world has come to a point where UFO security becomes crucial in the other components of the complex in both the domestic and in the international arena. Otherwise, what's the point to fight against terrorism, crime, solve the demographic and other problems, defend and promote the spiritual, ideological and social values in a particular country, region, if the population of the Earth would be doomed to degradation due to alien influence. Absolutely right RANS, ufologist with 30 years of experience Vladimir Azhazha: 'For individual national or public fence we do not hide. Planet of humanity alone, and leave it no one can. We have to fight for survival. 'And one of the leaders of the state program for the study of UFOs in France testifies: 'The appearance of airspace UFO - a direct threat to national security.' '

In analyzing the range of threats to Russia's national security, it is necessary to note the following:

the probability of the many threats currently low, but in the future may increase. Contribute to this instability in the southern parts of the country, the growing social and political tensions, the expansion of global processes;
threats can have a lasting character and above all because of the lack of effective package of measures aimed at preventing them;
They are usually complex and depending on the prevailing geopolitical and geostrategic situation may be more or less relevant to the importance and severity of the impact.
 

Yuri Podgornykh,
Doctor of Military Sciences, professor, member of the Academy of Military Sciences
Vasily Dolgov,
Ph.D., Associate Professor "
(Translated by Google)
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